A massive expansion of data centers driving artificial intelligence could reverse decades of progress in reducing air pollution across Texas, according to a report by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC). As developers scramble for electricity, researchers warn that relying on the state’s current power grid or fossil-fuel generators could push harmful emissions back to levels unseen in twenty years.
Under HARC’s projection where all planned facilities connect directly to the anticipated grid mix, soot and fine particle emissions from the power sector would more than triple within five years, reaching highs last recorded in 2006. Smog-forming nitrogen oxide emissions would surge by 136 percent to near-2004 levels, while carbon dioxide output would jump 90 percent compared to 2025. "There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did," warned HARC chief executive John Hall, noting that decades of hard-won reductions are at risk.
The environmental fallout will largely hinge on how tech companies choose to generate power. HARC found that pairing grid electricity with onsite wind and solar installations could cut nitrogen oxide emissions tenfold. However, developers facing long wait times for grid connections are increasingly opting for onsite fossil fuels instead. According to a March report by Wood Mackenzie, Texas already leads the nation with 26 gigawatts of operational and under-construction data center capacity, and is slated for four times more proposed onsite generation than any other state.
Many of these onsite projects rely on less efficient gas turbine technology simply to accelerate construction timelines, raising concerns that the boom will generate the highest pollution levels possible. While researchers emphasize that some proposed projects remain speculative and may never be built, the decisions made today about how to power these facilities will determine whether Texas sacrifices its air quality for the physical infrastructure of generative AI.